Global Carbon Budget 2026: 1.5°C Budget Now Under Four Years of Emissions

The Global Carbon Project released the Global Carbon Budget 2026 on 10 November 2026, during COP31 in Antalya. The headline finding: global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to fall marginally by 0.4% in 2026, but the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C is virtually exhausted - about 150 GtCO2, or less than four years of emissions at the current rate. India is the outlier among major emitters: its fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise 4.4% in 2026. The assessment is published in the journal Earth System Science Data (ESSD).

Global Carbon Budget 2026 at a glance

Released by: the Global Carbon Project (GCP) on 10 November 2026 at COP31 in Antalya; the 21st annual budget, published in Earth System Science Data (Friedlingstein et al., 2026, preprint under review).
2025 fossil CO2 emissions: 10.5 ± 0.5 GtC (about 38.5 GtCO2), up 1.2% over 2024; total anthropogenic CO2 (fossil + land-use change) was 11.7 ± 0.9 GtC (42.8 GtCO2).
Atmospheric CO2: averaged 425.6 ppm in 2025; set to rise by 2.2 ppm to 427.7 ppm in 2026, about 54% above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750).
Warming: human-induced warming reached about 1.37°C in 2025.

What the 2026 projection says

Fossil CO2: projected to decrease 0.4% (range -1.5% to +0.6%) to about 38.2 GtCO2, driven by solar and wind deployment and a widespread fall in oil emissions - the latter likely a short-term response to the energy shock from the Iran conflict.
Total CO2: still rises to about 43.3 GtCO2 in 2026 because land-use-change emissions increase, driven by peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia linked to drier El Niño conditions.
Clean energy: solar, wind and electric vehicles now offset about two-thirds of the emissions growth from rising energy demand.
Sinks: land and ocean together took up about 49% of anthropogenic emissions over the past decade; the land sink has recovered to pre-El Niño levels after its 2023-24 weakening.
Remaining 1.5°C budget: about 150 GtCO2 - less than four years at 2026 emission levels; total emissions growth has already slowed to 0.3% per year over 2016-2025 from 1.7% in the previous decade.

India in the 2026 budget

Share and trend: India accounts for about 8% of global fossil CO2; its 2026 emissions are projected to rise 4.4% (range +1.7% to +7.1%), above its decadal average growth of 3.5% per year.
Fuel split: coal emissions up 5.9%; oil emissions down slightly (-0.9%).
Other emitters: China -0.9% (27% share), USA -1.3% (13%), EU27 -1.5% (6%), Japan -1.0% (2.5%); international aviation and shipping each down about 1%.

Why it matters for the exam

Prelims: the Global Carbon Project and its annual budget, ESSD as the publishing journal, headline numbers (38.2 GtCO2 fossil, 427.7 ppm, 150 GtCO2 remaining budget) and India's +4.4% projection are direct factual hooks.
Mains (GS-III): energy transition pacing, the gap between clean-energy growth and demand growth, land and ocean sink behaviour under climate change, and India's emissions trajectory versus its net-zero 2070 pathway and COP31 negotiations - useful material for answers on climate mitigation and sustainable development.

Source: Global Carbon Budget 2026, Global Carbon Project, released 10 November 2026 (Earth System Science Data, preprint essd-2026-895); GCP release via its Tsukuba International Office.